顶，那帮爆吧的又来搞事了

顶

EC-AIFS 06z，菲东货997西北行登菲律宾入南海增强中

Circulations to the north-east of Diego Garcia:
At present, the 2 closed circulations located around 6°S 75°E and around 3°S 83°E remain poorly defined and elongated. The ASCAT passes at 0254Z and 0342Z show winds of around 15kt along the NET, outside the convective zone. The wave context is very favourable to an increase in low-level convergence and convective activity within the NET. Furthermore, at the end of the week, the deep vertical shear and the mid-tropospheric shear should weaken significantly, allowing one of the 2 circulations to gradually strengthen.
As far as the models are concerned, GFS proposes the earliest deepening among the deterministic models, with a process beginning as early as Friday. IFS and its counterpart AIFS are waiting until Saturday or even Sunday to propose a closed and symmetrical circulation. The ensemble models (EPS and GEFS) clearly reflect this uncertainty about the intensification window, which begins on Thursday evening at the earliest and runs until the middle of next week.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low from Friday 17 October and moderate from Saturday 19 near Diego Garcia.
10-day outlook :
Taking into account what has been described above, the risk of cyclogenesis will increase the following week in the center of the basin in a favorable context regarding the MJO.

远洋有个热带系统,涡度黄,重点是EC有反应