165e系统涡度持续集中，头上有冷涡提供辐合，干区也过了峰值，不知道能不能撑过去

蓝色包装小时空呢 怎么不更新ACE了？你的剩余价值就是给风吧更新ACE

ec-aifs继续报出下旬系统 巅峰1003，有机会十月底前生成海鸥

按06z gfs的报，本轮大槽打击副高要持续到月底才结束，在这种情况下，中远洋出超顶超的可能性比较低。至于菲东，本月有一个，因为不登菲，所以这个还是挺有机会脱水的。至于11月，本轮大槽打击结束，看在窗口期能不能搓一个大货吧

The Near-Equatorial Talweg (NET) now extends from 55°E to 85°E, undulating most often between 4°S and 7°S.
Convective activity remains moderate in the area of trade wind slowdown at the southern edge of the NET, but it has intensified in the vincinity of a poorly defined, oblong low-level circulation that is difficult to discern on the 0401 UTC ASCAT-C image near 3°S/86°E, at the eastern end of the NET.
During the week, we are tracking the movement of a Rossby wave, type n=1, which is very pronounced over the basin : the near-equatorial westerly wind anomaly is very marked. Its interaction with a Kelvin wave ahead of a wet MJO reinforces this westerly anomaly in the second half of the week. However, there is a slight lack of convergence on the polar side in terms of wave activity, which constrains the overall vorticity around the Rossby wave. The passage of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave at the very end of the week could strengthen it, but this remains to be confirmed. In this context, one or two low-pressure systems could emerge from the NET between the center and east of the basin over the next five days.
As the wave context becomes favourable, environmental conditions are slowly improving in the east and centre of the basin. On Friday, to the east of Diego-Garcia, low-level convergence improves in a pretty humid troposphere around the ill-defined circulation northeast of our basin. While mid-tropospheric shear is expected to decrease significantly during the week, we will have to wait until the end of the week to see a decrease in eastern deep shear. The development of a tropical system is expected to take time.
As far as the models are concerned, GFS proposes the earliest deepening among the deterministic models, with a process beginning as early as Friday. IFS and its counterpart AIFS are waiting until Saturday or even Sunday to propose a closed and symmetrical circulation. The ensemble models (EPS and GEFS) clearly reflect this uncertainty about the intensification window, which extends from Thursday evening at the earliest to the beginning of next week at the latest.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low from Friday 17th of October and moderate from Saturday near Diego Garcia.