nhc上望c5

全球热带气旋监测公报预报：徐立、刘涛 签发：张玲 2025 年 09 月 27 日 10 时“温贝托”加强为四级飓风时 间: 27日08时海 域: 北大西洋命 名: “温贝托”，HUMBERTO中心位置: 西经58.4度，北纬22.1度强度等级: 四级飓风最大风力: 17级以上，62米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级中心气压: 940百帕参考位置: 距离北大西洋开曼群岛东北方向约660公里变化过程: 过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由10级加强为17级以上预报结论: “温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度继续增强。

扩眼扩CDO

CDO肉眼可见的好转

一路绿灯是这样的，NHC果断上望C5，AI-RI的MPI给到155更意味着环境的优越，隔壁被切还没实测的倒霉蛋就哭吧（）

对流层顶支持-72.5到-75，中级W

忽然才发现附近有浮标站

本来以为温贝托是弱版轩岚诺，这下看来轩岚诺要变成弱版温贝托

一颠似乎结束了，ow和W都快绷不住了
一定时间DT6.5，单帧7.0，底层看起来不错但还没有发解析，要追一定时间滞后。暂时自评120-125

C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 29/0000Z AND 29/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 28/1730Z AND 29/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. D. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO AT 29/0000Z NEAR 25.3N 65.2W.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025
Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye
temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C)
is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated
that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The
initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS
ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample
mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify
rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates
a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest
official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a
peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period,
however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement
cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact
timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC
(Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle)
statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next
week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should
induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes
west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field
will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the
previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a
blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models.
Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this
evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial
motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt.
Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or
west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering
flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north
of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period,
or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in
forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a
rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a
major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of
northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The
official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous
advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and
lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind
ensemble model.
今晚 Humberto 继续快速增强。其风眼温度已升至15℃，而眼墙白色环带（-73℃）几乎闭合。2137 UTC 的 WSFM-1 HiRes 微波观测显示，距风眼约65海里处正在形成同心环。初始强度提升至125节，这与 UW-CIMSS 的 ADT T6.4 接近，并且高于 TAFB 和 SAB 的约束性主观 Dvorak 强度估计。
所有有利于增强的条件——低风切变、温暖海水和充足的中层水汽——都显示 Humberto 在未来12-24小时内具备快速增强的条件。DTOPS 指导显示在未来12-24小时内有很高的快速增强概率，最新的官方强度预报也反映了这一趋势，预计 Humberto 在周六晚间将达到140节的峰值强度。然而，到36小时左右，由于眼墙置换循环（ERC），可能会出现内核结构波动，具体时间难以预测。值得一提的是，UW-CIMSS 的 M-PERC（基于微波的眼墙置换循环概率统计模型）预测有61%的发生概率。到下周中期，随 Humberto 上空的垂直风切变增强，预计将出现逐渐减弱的趋势。同时，当它经过百慕大以西时，地表风场也可能显著扩大。NHC 的强度预报在36小时内略高于前一份预报，并大体接近 HCCA 共识以及 HAFS/HWRF/HMON 飓风模式的综合结果。
今晚 Humberto 出现了一个向左的小幅回旋运动，这可能与快速增强事件有关。初始移动方向估计为略偏南的正西，即265°/6节。预计 Humberto 在未来一天左右将缓慢向西或西北偏西移动，其导向气流来自位于气旋北侧并在百慕大以东的中层高压。到48小时（即周日晚间）左右，随着上述高压减弱并东移，Humberto 预计将向西北转向，同时前进速度有所减缓。到第4天，受从加拿大东北部南下并深入西北大西洋的强大短波高空槽影响，Humberto 将开始一个明显的北转和东北转。此次官方路径预报相较于前一份略偏左，主要原因是初始移动轨迹更偏左，同时路径位于 HCCA 修正共识与 Google DeepMind 集合模型之间。