WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2520 BUALOI (2520)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 12.2N 122.9E FAIR
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 13.5N 120.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 270000UTC 14.7N 116.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 280000UTC 16.2N 110.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 290000UTC 18.9N 106.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 300000UTC 20.2N 102.9E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

不是哥们这是眼吗

菲中有无实测？昨天09z就扫到80kt，后来一直ccc维持强度，现在能开出眼来，外加高移速，基础风速应该不会差

从云图上，台湾附近那是啥，也是一坨

一夜过去，jma也不在坚持预报登陆三亚，现在三大机构路径基本一致，就是从三亚100多公里外擦过

所以这个是眼还是对流空洞看起来好歪，vis上也看不出什么东西

vis上还是能看到点的

13级擦过三亚

TXPQ23 KNES 260056
TCSWNP
A. 26W (BUALOI)
B. 25/2330Z
C. 13.2N
D. 123.2E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET EQUALS
4.5 BASED ON A SLOWLY DEVELOPING 24-HOUR TREND AND THE PT EQUALS 4.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LINER

26W BUALOI 250926 0000 12.3N 123.3E WPAC 60 991

只要预报海南南部的台风只会越调越南，不接受反驳，真是百思不得其解

路径严重偏难。接下来是红河三角洲和云南的事了